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There is no way to be certain you won't get dementia.
But roughly 45% of it sits inside the range you can move.

The most important thing first. No method reliably prevents dementia. Plenty of products claim otherwise; none of them have evidence that can promise certainty. That is still not a reason for pessimism. The Lancet Commission (2024) reports that around 45% of dementia cases worldwide are associated with 14 modifiable risk factors. This page deals only with the part you can move, in order of how much it matters.

Modifiable ≈ 45%
Age, genetics, unexplained ≈ 55%

Modifiable — the share the 14 factors relate to Age is the dominant factor, and it cannot be changed

Before the numbersWhy "certain" is not on offer

Skip this and you will misread everything below. Three things.

1. The biggest risk factor is age, and it doesn't move

Incidence climbs steeply with age. However good your habits are, living longer raises the risk. Nobody gets around that.

Genetics is similar. Carrying APOE ε4 raises the likelihood of Alzheimer's disease — but many carriers never develop it, and many non-carriers do. The probability shifts. Nothing is decided.

2. That 45% is not your personal risk

It is a population attributable fraction (PAF): the share of cases that would theoretically disappear if a factor were entirely removed from the whole population.

So it does not mean "treating my hearing loss cuts my risk by 7%". For an individual, the honest statement is only that the probability goes down somewhat. Be sceptical of any article or advert that blurs this distinction while quoting the numbers.

3. Most of these are associations, not proven causes

Most of the 14 come from observational studies. Is it that inactive people are more likely to develop dementia, or that early-stage disease makes people less active? Observation alone can't fully separate those — this is called reverse causation.

That said, some have now been tested in trials. The section on evidence strength further down separates what has been tested from what has only been observed. Not flattening those together is the point of this page.

The factors14 modifiable risk factors

Figures are population attributable fractions (Lancet Commission, 2024). Larger means more impact at the population level — not the size of the effect for you personally. They sum to roughly 45%.

Early life up to about 45

5%

Less education

Cognitive reserve built early is thought to help compensate for later changes in the brain

Midlife about 45–65 — the window where action pays

7%

Hearing loss

The largest single factor. Not hearing well means less conversation, and the input to the brain thins out

7%

High LDL cholesterol

Newly added in 2024. Thought to act through vascular damage

3%

Depression

Sometimes a prodromal symptom, sometimes a risk factor. Either way it warrants treatment

3%

Traumatic brain injury

Repeated impacts matter most. Helmets and fall prevention are the practical response

2%

Physical inactivity

The number looks modest, but exercise lowers blood pressure, glucose, weight and depression at the same time, so the real effect is larger

2%

Diabetes

Sustained high blood glucose damages both vessels and nerves

2%

Smoking

Risk begins falling from the point you stop. It is never too late

2%

Hypertension (midlife)

Midlife control is what matters. Starting in old age makes the effect harder to detect

1%

Obesity

Probably acting together with blood pressure, glucose and lipids rather than alone

1%

Excessive alcohol

More than about 21 units a week. The claim that small amounts are protective has weakened considerably

Later life 65 onward

5%

Social isolation

Talking to people is itself both a cognitive load and a source of input

3%

Air pollution

Not fully avoidable individually, but where you live and how you ventilate move it somewhat

2%

Untreated vision loss

Added in 2024. The point is not to leave treatable causes — cataracts above all — untreated

Why sleep isn't on the list

Plenty of studies link poor sleep and sleep apnoea to dementia, but sleep is not among the Lancet Commission's 14, because the direction of causation isn't settled — early changes may disrupt sleep rather than the other way round.

Sleep apnoea is still worth treating, and better sleep improves depression, weight and blood pressure, all of which are on the list. Worth doing — just not something we can claim is one of the 14. Keeping those separate is the policy here.

CheckWhat you can act on now

Set your age, then tick what applies. This produces no risk score. That is a clinician's job, and it isn't calculable for an individual anyway. What you get is the list of factors you can still move, ordered by impact. Nothing leaves this page.

Self-check 0 / 14
35
Tick anything that applies to see the order.

Up to 45build now

45–65highest yield

65+maintain

Highlighted chips are the factors for your current life stage. Nothing here is harmed by starting early.

PriorityThree that matter most and get overlooked

Everyone already knows about diet and exercise. These are the high-ranking ones that rarely come up.

Hearing loss PAF 7% — the largest single factor

Hearing aids almost never come up in conversations about dementia. Yet this is the biggest of the 14. Poor hearing means less conversation, then fewer outings, and it chains directly into social isolation (5%).

In 2023 the ACHIEVE trial reported that hearing aids did not significantly slow cognitive decline across the whole sample, but reduced decline by about 48% in the subgroup already at high risk. It does not work for everyone — but it is one of the few interventions with trial evidence at all.

Do this If the TV volume you want doesn't match your family's, if you ask people to repeat themselves more than you used to, or if conversation in a noisy restaurant has become hard — get an audiology test. It is quick and inexpensive. Consumer "sound amplifiers" are not hearing aids; test first.

LDL cholesterol and blood pressure PAF 7% + 2%

LDL was newly added to the 14 in 2024. It shares something important with blood pressure: midlife is when control pays off. Lowering these only in old age makes the effect much harder to demonstrate.

For blood pressure, the SPRINT MIND trial found that intensive lowering reduced the incidence of mild cognitive impairment (the effect on dementia itself did not reach statistical significance). Again — one of the few areas with an actual trial.

Do this Don't discard your check-up numbers. Keep one home blood pressure monitor and measure at the same time each morning. The most common failure is not ignorance — it is being told the number is high and doing nothing.

Social connection PAF 5% — the one you can't do alone

Almost everything else here you can handle by yourself. This one you can't. And it collapses the moment you retire — the more your relationships run through work, the harder this hits later.

"Make friends" is too large a goal. It is enough to have a standing reason to see people once a week: a hobby group, something local, a place you're a regular. The recurring slot is the point, not the depth.

Do this Count the relationships in your life that run through neither work nor family. If the answer is zero, that is your highest priority. Building this young is far easier than building it later.

EvidenceGraded by how much we actually know

"Good for prevention" covers wildly different levels of proof. Most articles flatten them together. This one doesn't.

Trial evidence
Correcting hearing loss (hearing aids)

ACHIEVE trial. Slowed cognitive decline in a high-risk subgroup; no significant effect across the full sample. Both halves of that belong in the summary.

Trial evidence
Blood pressure control

SPRINT MIND reduced mild cognitive impairment. The effect on dementia itself is not established.

Trial evidence
Multidomain intervention

Finland's FINGER trial: exercise, diet, cognitive training and vascular risk management together for two years produced a small but significant cognitive benefit. Grounds for thinking "several at once" beats "one thing".

Consistent observation
Exercise

Extremely consistent association, though reverse causation can't be fully excluded. No reason not to do it — it moves several other factors simultaneously.

Consistent observation
Social connection, education, cognitive activity

Broadly supports the cognitive-reserve hypothesis. Whether it can be built through deliberate intervention is still being tested.

Consistent observation
Stopping smoking, managing diabetes, healthy weight

Well established for cardiovascular prevention. The dementia benefit is considered a reasonable extension of that.

Promising, unproven
Mediterranean and MIND diets

Good observational results. But a randomised trial of the MIND diet published in 2023 found no difference between groups over three years. Temper expectations accordingly.

Promising, unproven
Improving sleep, treating sleep apnoea

Many reported associations. Excluded from the 14 because the direction of causation is unresolved. Worth treating on general health grounds regardless.

Limited effect
Brain-training games and puzzles

The current view is that you get better at the trained task, but transfer to everyday cognition or to dementia incidence is doubtful. Play them if you enjoy them; don't build your strategy on them.

No evidence
Supplements marketed for dementia prevention

No supplement has been shown to prevent dementia. Ginkgo biloba failed in a large trial (GEM); vitamin E and omega-3 have not demonstrated preventive effect either. This is exactly why this site links no supplements at all.

No evidence
Anything sold as a cure

Coconut oil, special waters, unusual electrical stimulation devices. Dementia combines high anxiety with hard-to-verify claims, which is precisely the environment these products grow in. Certainty in the wording is itself a warning sign.

EarlyWhat to do when you notice something

Catching it early matters as much as prevention. At the stage of mild cognitive impairment (MCI), some cases return to normal, and the drugs that exist work differently early than late.

1. When to get it checked

Forgetting things happens with age. The distinguishing pattern looks like this.

  • Ageing: part of an experience goes missing. A hint brings it back. The person notices themselves
  • Concerning: the whole experience is gone. Hints don't retrieve it. Others notice before the person does
  • The same story repeated within a short span; tasks needing sequencing (cooking, managing money) becoming suddenly difficult
  • Appliances or apps that were previously fine becoming unusable
2. Where to go

You don't need a specialist centre first.

  • Start with a GP or family doctor, who can refer onward if needed
  • If the person refuses to go, families can usually seek advice alone through local services — in Japan, the Community General Support Centre (地域包括支援センター); your municipal office will point you to it
  • For fuller assessment, a memory clinic or dementia medical centre
  • Thyroid disease, vitamin deficiency and medication side effects can produce similar symptoms and are treatable. That alone justifies getting tested
3. About the drugs — they are not preventive

Lecanemab and similar agents targeting the underlying pathology of Alzheimer's disease are now available. But they are drugs that slow progression — not cures, and not preventives. Eligibility is limited to early disease, side effects include brain swelling and microhaemorrhage, and regular imaging is required. Go through both the promise and the limits with the treating physician.

The most dangerous thing when you're frightened

This field attracts products and claims that feed on anxiety. The words "guaranteed", "certain", "all you need" are on their own sufficient reason to doubt the evidence behind them.

What actually has support is unglamorous. Check your hearing. Measure your blood pressure. Walk. See people. Not exciting — but currently the surest hand available.

About this page

This is not medical guidance. Consult a physician for diagnosis and treatment. The figures come from published research and do not describe any individual's probability of developing dementia.

Research moves. In a few years both the count and the weights will have changed. When that happens, this page gets rewritten.

Principal sources — Livingston et al., Dementia prevention, intervention, and care: 2024 report of the Lancet standing Commission, The Lancet, 2024 / Lin et al., ACHIEVE trial, The Lancet, 2023 / SPRINT MIND Investigators, JAMA, 2019 / Ngandu et al., FINGER trial, The Lancet, 2015 / DeKosky et al., GEM study, JAMA, 2008